引用:
原帖由 joefanny 於 2009-11-5 08:25 PM 發表 
對上一次較明顯的通賬是1975年至1980(其實算不上超級通賬)，老美為了支持金本位消失後的美匯，炒高石油價格400%(貨幣戰爭有講)，結果這次是石油帶動下引發通賬。當然，引火者自已都受傷，很多企業破產，且金價急升。 ...
This time our system has "many more swimming pools" than any other time. The FX market, the bond market, the stock market, real estate market, commodity future market, the MBS, CDO, CDS, IRS...., quadrillions of $.
But all these are not included in CPI. Ben prints money like a guy pouring water at the top of the mountain. The water may go down several ways. And many are not directly injected into the CPI pool that is at the foot of the mountain.
So now, the water has come out and maybe in the middle of the process. Stock, real estate reinflated, commodity begins to rally while the bond tries to maintain its high level (low yield), but it can't hold for long. Greenspan said that usually it will be 3.5 years for the water to flow from the top of the mountain to its foot. So that would be 2007.09~2008.09 + 3.5yrs -> 2011.03~2012.03
But that is normal case. And this time the injected water is unprecedented. And the market already knows the possible future. So people won't wait 3.5 yrs and then take action.
IMHO, the best benchmark now is US 30yrs T-bond yield. If fed doesn't buy it any more or even sell it, as Geithner needs to sell more of it to increase the average rollover time, the yield will skyrocket, which means
THE END OF THE BULL MARKET FOR TREASURY SINCE 1982 (almost 30 yrs, wow ? ) . As the yield goes to 15% or more, it will lead to a gold mania
If that yield goes above 5%, commercial real estate together with Alt-A & option ARM (these two are to be doomed since Jan. 2010) will give US a second blow.
And if that happens and ben has to re-monetize the debt, dollar will completely collapse because nobody will trust fed once more.
Only the crash of paper gold can give physical gold price a 100x impact. What if others rush in ?
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本帖最後由 keinwell 於 2009-11-5 09:25 PM 編輯 ]
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